Posted in American League, Around the Web, National League, Projections on March 9, 2025 | 1 Comment »
We can forecast on how we think a player will perform in each category. Some of these statistical categories reward playing time (i.e. HR,RBI,K,W) , where others are based on the success rate (AVG,ERA)
Everyone has their secret formula about how they make these projection, but the bottom line is we will be happy just knowing the numbers are close. We do not need to know how close the number are , we just care that we are within the range of the actual numbers .
ESPN
Posted in American League, Around the Web, Minors, National League, Projections, Prospects, Rookie Of Year, Rotisserie, ROY on February 17, 2026 | Leave a Comment »
Each year, USA Today comes out with their 100 names you need to know for the upcoming season. This is a good resource of getting to know some of the minor league players that are usually at that point of their career where they are ready make a big impact at the major league level.
Here are a few of the players making the 2011 top ten of the “100 Names You Need to Know:
#1 Aroldis Chapman
Bullpen is the answer to the first big question about the Cuban flamethrower for this season. That’s where he’ll pitch, though the Reds aren’t ruling out a future role in their rotation. The next question revolves around when and if he could take over for closer Francisco Cordero, who is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract ($12 million option for 2012) and allowed baserunners last season at the highest rate of his career.
#2 Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel, 22, got a taste of key late-inning situations late last season and in the playoffs. His 14.4 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate through three minor league seasons was impressive enough, but he boosted that to 16.9 in his 25 combined regular season and playoff innings in the majors last year.
#3 Freddy Freeman
Freeman will show up this spring with the first base job and expectations he can be as impactful as Heyward. A lefty like his close friend Heyward, Freeman’s best attribute might be his defense, though he finished in the Class AAA International League’s top 10 in batting before turning 21 in September. His 18 homers last year dispelled concerns the 6-5, 225-pounder might not develop big-time power.
#6 Logan Morrison
Florida has plenty to chirp about with its trio of young studs on offense. Twitter-happy Morrison - and not Mike Stanton or Gaby Sanchez - remains eligible for our list thanks to his late-July 2010 call-up. Morrison moved to the outfield last year after older Sanchez beat him out for the Marlins’ first base job.
Posted in Braves, Marlins, Mets, National League, Nationals, NL East, Opening Day, Phillies, Projections on April 1, 2025 | Leave a Comment »
The final rosters do not have to be finalized until Sunday afternoon, but looking at what we know today, here’s how I see it in the NL East:
| Pos | Mets | Marlins | Braves | Nats | Phils |
| C | Barajas | Baker | McCann | Rodriguez | Ruiz |
| 1B | Jacobs | Sanchez | Glaus | Dunn | Howard |
| 2B | Castillo | Uggla | Prado | Kennedy | Utley |
| SS | Cora | Ramirez | Escobar | Desmond | Rollins |
| 3B | Wright | Cantu | Jones | Zimmerman | Polanco |
| LF | Bay | Coughlin | Cabrera | Willingham | Ibanez |
| CF | Pagan | Maybin | McLouth | Morgan | Victorino |
| RF | Francoeur | Ross | Heyward | Harris | Werth |
| OF | Catalanotto | Carroll | Diaz | Bernadina | Fransisco |
| OF | Matthews Jr. |
Bonofacio | Hinske | Morse | Gload |
| IF | Carter | Helms | Infante | Gonzalez | Dobbs |
| IF | Tatis | Lamb | Thurston | Guzman | Castro |
| C | Blanco | Paulino | Ross | Nieves | Schneider |
| SP | Santana | Johnson | Hudson | Lannan | Halladay |
| SP | Pelfrey | Nolasco | Lowe | Marquis | Hamels |
| SP | Maine | Sanchez | Jurrjens | Stammen | Happ |
| SP | Perez | Volstad | Hanson |
Hernandez | Kendrick |
| SP | Niese | Robertson | Kawakami | Mock | Moyer |
| RP | Rodriguez | Nunez | Wagner | Capps | Madson |
| RP | Igarashi | Sanchez | Moylan | Olsen | Baez |
| RP | Feliciano | Meyer | Saito | Bruney | Zagurski |
| RP | Mejia | Veres | Medlin | Clippard | Durbin |
| RP | Calero | Hensley | Reyes | Burnett | Bastardo |
| RP | Figueroa | Pinto | Chavez |
Bergmann | Lopez |
| 25th | Adams | Barden | Conrad | Batista | Ransom |
Posted in Around the Web, MLB, Projections, Rays, Sabermetrics on March 3, 2025 | 1 Comment »
Those of you who have been following my site for a while know I am big time into fantasy baseball. In past years, my favorite resource for getting ready for the draft and the baseball season is USA Today’s must see LABR draft issue. The LABR issue comes out in late March. Until then, there is a wide variety of publications to choose from at reasonable costs.
Leading off is another edition of the DRAYS BAY Annual. This is by far the best one yet, with a bunch of talented writers contributing. I never imagined that the DRB franchise would evolve into such am intelligent community.
Next on the new ticket, is an introductory sabermetrics book just published last week by Lee Panas that is titled Beyond Batting Average. This book introduces fans to sabermetrics with easy to understand explanations and examples. My site was even referenced in the book:
Both the BA/OBP/SLG and BA/EOBP/ISO combinations are limited, due to the fact that they fail to take playing time into account. For example, a hitter with a .300 BA/.360 OBP/.500 SLG in 600 PA would contribute more to his team than a hitter with the same line in 300 PA. David Bloom, of BaseballHappenings.com, suggests using OBP/SLG/TOB/TB because it combines both rate measures (OBP, SLG) and playing time statistics (TOB, TB). However, BA/OBP/SLG is still the most common combination in the sabermetric community.
Next,on tap for fantasy baseball is the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. This is a supplement for just $5 to the Rotoprofessor site which is a great resource for your fantasy help throughout the year. See the Rotoprofessor Interview
Another nicely priced resource is Charlie Saponara Fantasy Baseball 365 Draft guide which can be obtained via a donation. If you don’t check out the guide, fantasybaseball365.com is where you can find good tips throughout the year. I played in a few expert leagues with Charlie over the years. He knows his stuff.
Other Good Resources:
Posted in American League, Around the Web, Minors, MLB, National League, Opening Day, Projections, Prospects on February 24, 2026 | Leave a Comment »
Each year, USA Today comes out with their 100 names you need to know for the upcoming season. The list is different from typical prospect lists. Its typically a good resource for fantasy leagues, as these are players who have a good chance to make contributions for the upcoming season:
These aren’t necessarily baseball’s 100 best prospects because many top prospects are too far down in the minor leagues to contribute in the majors this season. Others are stuck behind established major leaguers.
Not all of the players on our list have rookie status, either, but our standard for inclusion is that a player must have had more innings (for pitchers) or at-bats (for hitters) in the minor leagues in 2009 than he has had during all of his major league time.
Conversely, Baseball America released their top 100 prospect list for 2010 .
The Top 100 Prospects list is the culmination of our offseason prospect coverage, which begins with our reviews of the top talent in each minor league and proceeds with ranking the talent in each major league farm system.
Posted in American League, MVP, Projections, Twins on February 7, 2026 | Leave a Comment »
We have heard rumors of Twins catcher Joe Mauer , the 2009 AL MVP, going to the dance together with the Twins for the next 10 years. Mauer’s 2009 season is one for the record books, leading the American league in Batting Average , On Base Percentage, Slugging, OPS, and runs created.
Did the Mets rush oufielder Fernando Martinez to majors last season? His minor league career has shown flashes of great potential, but the ability to stay healthy has been his biggest drawback.
The Marcel projection system is either the most basic forecasting system, or the most advanced forecasting system. The Marcel 2010 projections can be found here.
With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the trade of Cliff Lee, the free agent signing of Placido Polanco, you would wonder how the Phillies might stack up. Based On Shawn Smith’s Chone projection system, Phillies season is best summed up with two words, second place.
Miguel Cairo was one of the first ever Devil Ray players. We never knew he would have such a useful career as a super substitute utility player. There is even a projection system named after him. Here is where you can find the 2010 Cairo projections.
Lastly, pitchers and catchers in seven days.
Posted in Minors, MLB, National League, Projections, Prospects, Reds on February 26, 2026 | Leave a Comment »
The Reds Chris Dickerson (like it says here) has a track record of the high strikeout numbers. I decided to take a look back at his minor league performance, and he is pretty consistent with double digit home runs and the 20 or so stolen bases.
HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG AB Team-Yr League 6 15 5 17 35 .304 .413 .608 102 CIN-08 (NL) 11 53 26 54 102 .287 .384 .479 349 LOU-08 (AAA) 13 44 23 52 131 .260 .361 .435 354 LOU-07 (AAA) 12 48 21 65 129 .242 .355 .424 389 CHAT-06 (AA)
Dickerson did have an off the charts display in his callup to the major leagues last season. Dickerson was in the company with some of the best in the game (.608 TB/AB), but this was only a small sample of plate appearances.
So, what can we expect out of the young outfielder who is trying to earn a starting job with the team. My thought is last season was more than a little above the level we will see out of Dickerson.
I am predicting 14 HRS , .245 BA, 67RBI , and 20 SB.
Lets see what some of the prediction systems say:
Bill James is super high on him. .268BA, 21HR, 37SB, 93RBI
The Chone predictions does not seem that high on him though.
From the scouting perspective, John Sickels thinks the speedster strikes out too much but makes a valuable fouth outfielder. I do think the best compareable I know of is Corey Patterson.
Posted in American League, National League, Opening Day, Preview, Projections, Prospects, Rookies, Rotisserie on January 23, 2026 | Leave a Comment »
The Baseball Insights site has unveiled their 2009 player projection functionality. For example , I did I lookup on John Bowker, and Daniel Murphy.
Over at Fantasy Phenoms, they have their prospect outlook by position .
The MLB Jerk has a look at NL East prospects.
The Grand Finale link of the day is Keith Law’s Top 100.
Posted in Cardinals, MLB, National League, Projections on November 18, 2025 | 1 Comment »
It was early 2008, and we kept hearing how Albert Pujols had a bad elbow. He was said to be shut down early if the Cardinals fell out of contention. People in their fantasy drafts were told to be hesitant of picking Albert in his usual elite status. Also, their was talk in the 2007 post season how Albert simply was not his usual season self. Albert Pujols took home the hardware yesterday achieving his second National League MVP award while being reportedly hurt in 2008. Let alone his bat, Albert brings a nice glove to the mix as well. He has achieved legendary status by doing all this while at full strength. For all those risk takers out there took a flyer on Pujols in 2008, it was something that came up smelling like roses.
For a look back at what the voting by bloggers for the NL MVP early on looked like in 4 voting periods:
Posted in American League, Around the Web, MLB, National League, Phillies, Projections on June 5, 2025 | 1 Comment »
Chase Utley of the Phillies is showing he is the real deal in 2008. Well, we have known that a while now. Utley’s 2007 campaign and possible MVP were derailed by a HBP that had him on the DL which reduced his overall counting statistics. If you are counting now, Utley’s sweet stroke has him on 20 HRs which leads all Major League players . This all from a position not usually known for its hitting power. Its quite clear he is the better version of Jeff Kent’s reign of the 1990s, and looks almost certain to pass Davey Johnson’s single season record for a second baseman. His minor league career attempted to make him a 3B at one point, but in the end he was to be second baseman. Although, he was blocked at the position for several years by Tigers Placido Polanco. He arrived on the scene later than expected for a mashing second baseman. The thing i remember most about Utley is in his brief debut several years before getting the full time gig is he stroked a grand slam. Before the season Brett at Fantasy Phenoms asked me this question:
Brett Greenfield: If you were a MLB GM and building a team,
which player would you choose to build it around? How about
if you were a fantasy GM?David Bloom: If I were building a team around a single player,
there would be certain criteria I would use. Number one, I’d be
building the team around a position player rather than a pitcher
because contributions from the position player arrive on an
everyday basis, rather than every fifth day with a stud starting
pitcher. Next, the player would be a player you could bat anywhere
in the lineup, and he could adjust accordingly to his role in the
lineup. Lastly, the player must be a leader on and off the field.
If I had to name a single player, I would go with David Wright
with the Mets. The thing about the Mets 3B is that he is such as
good hitter, and he has become a leader at such a young age. As a
fantasy team, I might go with Chase Utley for all the same reasons.
However, with Utley, he plays 2b and you usually don’t see that
type of production at such a scarce position. With Wright, Its
easier to find another good 3B, but with Utley, there is a big
drop off to find a similar player.
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